ADB raises Georgia’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 6.3%
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Georgia upwards from 5.5% to 6.3%, according to the bank’s September update release.
The upward revision was driven by stronger-than-expected economic activity during the first half of the year. The international financial institution noted that despite heightened geopolitical tensions across the region, the impact on Georgia’s economic performance remained limited. However, ADB also raised its 2026 inflation projection from 4.9% to 5.2%, citing higher global energy prices that have heightened domestic inflationary pressures.
According to the report, the Georgian economy maintained robust momentum in H1 2026, expanding by 7.9%. Growth was primarily fueled by the services sector, which surged by 13.9% in the first quarter—driven by a 36.0% expansion in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and an 18.0% rise in transport and storage. Industrial output grew by 2.0%, whereas agriculture contracted by 3.3%. Domestic demand remained resilient, bolstered by an 8.0% increase in private consumption, alongside a 6.8% rise in exports of goods and services.
“Despite a weaker economic outlook across the region and heightened external uncertainties, Georgia’s economy has demonstrated resilience. The services sector continues to be a major growth driver, with consumption and exports leading the demand side. At the same time, rising global energy prices are feeding into domestic inflation, while a slowdown in tourism has moderated external demand. Maintaining macroeconomic stability and enhancing competitiveness remain essential to sustaining growth amid regional and external headwinds,” stated Lesley Bearman Lahm, ADB Country Director for Georgia.
Regarding inflation, the upward revision stems from escalating fuel costs and their pass-through impact on consumer prices. Average annual inflation reached 5.2% in H1 2026, compared to 3.1% in the corresponding period of 2025. Transport costs jumped by 7.7% year-on-year (having fallen by 2.2% in H1 2025), while food prices rose by 8.0% year-on-year, up from 6.1% previously.
“Georgia’s external position strengthened in the first half of 2026. The current account deficit narrowed to 3.8% of GDP in the first quarter, down from 8.5% a year earlier, supported by strong growth in exports of goods and services, as well as remittances. Disruptions to regional air travel weighed on tourism, with revenues declining by 2.0% in H1 2026. However, this drop was partially offset by growth in other service exports—total service exports expanded by 7.2% in Q1, driven largely by a 65.7% surge in ICT service exports. Remittances grew by 4.0%. Foreign currency inflows helped stabilise the lari, enabling a further accumulation of international reserves,” the ADB update detailed.