“Under the current geopolitical circumstances, Georgia’s non-use of force pledge remains a sensible policy,” said Luke Coffey, American expert and senior fellow at Hudson Institute, in an interview with Georgian Public Broadcaster (GPB).
“I think that under the current geopolitical circumstances, Georgia’s non-use of force pledge, the commitment not to use military force to get two occupied regions back, remains a good one. However, because of the events of February 2022, the world is now in a new era. Transatlantic community is now in a new situation, and we just don’t know what is going to happen. We do not know how the Russian Federation will be impacted in the long term because of what is happening in Ukraine. We do not know how South Caucasus will be impacted. I believe that the non-use of force pledge remains a sensible policy. I think that Georgian policymakers need to be prepared for all possibilities because we do not know what is going to happen to Russia and by extension, what will happen to the occupied regions in the coming months and years,” Luke Coffey said.
Luke Coffey declared that Georgia most likely will receive only political support from the West if Russia decides to annex the occupied Abkhazia and Tskhinvali regions.
“I think because of what’s happening in Ukraine, there will be more awareness and outcry from the international community if Russia decides to formally annex the Abkhazia and Tskhinvali regions, but from practical purpases, these regions are already part of the Russian Federation. Russia is responsible for the economic and security situation. The most of the de facto leaders in these regions are either from Moscow or through fake elections. I do not see much change if Russia decides to formally annex these two regions. I don’t think we will see the same international support for Georgia, because Georgia is not involved in an armed conflict right now. We should have taken a stronger role back in 2008. There was a possibility and a time, moment to do something, and we didn’t. Though, today if Russia formally annexes these regions, I do not see the US or international community rushing weapons to Georgia or anything like that. I think it will just be political support for Georgia,” he added.