On 30 May 2025, Fitch Ratings has affirmed Georgia’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BB’ with a Negative Outlook.

The ‘BB’ rating is supported by Georgia’s high level of economic development relative to ‘BB’ peers, a credible macro-fiscal policy framework, moderate public debt, and sound banking sector.

Georgia’s net external debt, at 43% of GDP as of 2024, is nearly 3x the ‘BB’ median. However, risks are mitigated by high inter-company lending in the debt stock.

Real economic growth remains strong in Georgia at 8.8% yoy in January-April 2025 (2022-24 annual average: 9.4%), owing to strong services sector performance. In Fitch’s view, potential growth (currently estimated at 4.8%) has been boosted by investments in the information and communications technology, hospitality, transport and construction sectors. Fitch expects growth of 5.6% in 2025 and 5.2% in 2026, with upside from productivity enhancements.

Fitch expects inflation to average 3.2% in 2025-26. The NBG has kept policy rates unchanged at 8% since May 2024, and is unlikely to cut rates given the potential for looser monetary conditions to boost FX demand. Monetary policy transmission is somewhat constrained by high levels of dollarisation (end-1Q25: 53.5% of deposits and 43.1% of loans).