“Revolutions never occur on schedule. If they happen, they happen unexpectedly for everyone – no one can foresee them even hours in advance,” wrote Nika Melia, one of the leaders of the Coalition for Change, in a letter published on his Facebook page.

Melia refrained from directly criticizing other opposition groups, including Lelo and the Gakharia party, explaining that he avoids issuing political judgments from prison. However, he underlined that the October 4 rally highlighted a disconnect between the protest organizers and the broader protest electorate.

According to him, the rally organizers mistakenly assumed that people would rebel on October 4 and take risks beyond attending a peaceful street protest. Instead, he said, the organisers’ sole plan – dedication – was not enough to mobilise the wider population.

“The organizers’ only promise was to defeat Bidzina on October 4. Therefore, those who came to the rally with that message should not criticize them now, even after the fact. It is positive that the majority, given the context, refrains from doing so. Personally, I appreciate those who criticized the empty and unrealistic promise from the start, unlike those who stayed silent and only began to attack after October 4.

If the organizers had done nothing, many would still have complained: “We were 100,000 people—why did they dissolve us without any action?” Such voices are never lacking in the protest movement. The organizers mistakenly believed that on October 4 people would rebel and take greater risks than simply attending a peaceful rally.
I will say only this:
A revolution cannot be announced in advance with posters. If it happens, it will come unexpectedly, without anyone being able to predict it—even hours before.
We are engaged in a long-term struggle. Every rash move or attempt to accelerate events only delays real change. The sooner we adapt to reality, the sooner victory will come.
The organizers responded to the demands of the most active part of the protest community, which often creates the false impression of being the majority. For this reason, criticism of the organizers is misplaced. Actions undertaken without considering real forces and circumstances, based only on hopes of accidental success, are dictated by these vocal groups. To address them directly, I am writing this exceptional letter to speak an unpopular truth: the only plan the organizers had on the 4th was their dedication—yet this failed to gain the support of 98% of the rally participants, and it will not gain support in the future. If we understand the true mood of our society, protests will become far more effective,” he wrote.

Reflecting on the broader movement, Melia pointed to what he called the “struggle that began after the rigged elections of October 26.” He argued that this effort has already delegitimized the ruling regime in the eyes of the international community and continues to endure despite setbacks.

Finally, he praised those who remain committed to the cause. “There is no final battle – it is a fight to the end. I thank those who, despite threats and growing nihilism, continue to stand firm. For them, nothing ended on October 4. They gave the answer: we will stand here until victory,” Melia concluded.