Galt & Taggart report: EU candidate status improves Georgia's forecast for 2024

15:03, 04.01.2024

The research organization Galt & Taggart has published a report on the economic outlook for Georgia in 2024, discussing different scenarios. The report indicates that the EU candidate status has improved forecasts for 2024, leading to the development of two scenarios – baseline and upside.

In the baseline scenario, the economy is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2024, with an average exchange rate of GEL/dollar and GEL/euro between 2.7 and 3.0. Annual inflation is forecasted at 3.5%, and the National Bank may gradually reduce the monetary policy rate to 8.5% by the end of 2024.

In the upside scenario, the economy is projected to grow by 6.0% in 2024, with an average exchange rate of GEL/USD and GEL/EUR between 2.65 and 2.95. Average annual inflation is expected at 3.0%, and the National Bank could gradually reduce the monetary policy rate to 8.0%.

The report also highlights ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the region as potential risks, but with existing buffers, the country is deemed capable of coping with such risks if they materialize.

By - Tamar Tabatadze

Economics

economic outlook

Galt & Taggart

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