“As the linchpin of the so-called Middle Corridor, the shortest route connecting Europe to China and Central Asia, Georgia is a valuable prize for Putin,” the Georgian opposition MP Salome Samadashvili wrote in her article published by Project Syndicate.

Samadashvili mentions that “As the West’s political leaders become increasingly preoccupied with the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, they risk losing their geopolitical influence in a small, but strategically significant Black Sea country: Georgia.”

Salome Samadashvili points out that “a Kremlin-style law [Foreign Influence law] would allow the government to eliminate non-governmental organizations working for democracy and the rule of law, suppress independent media and eradicate the opposition.”

“So why, given his seemingly pro-Western stance, did Ivanishvili make a U-turn now, ahead of parliamentary elections and when 90 percent of the population support EU accession?

The answer lies in Russia, where Ivanishvili amassed his fortune. As the linchpin of the so-called Middle Corridor, the shortest route connecting Europe to China and Central Asia, Georgia is a valuable prize for Putin.

The trajectory of the deep-sea port project in the Georgian town of Anaklia is illustrative. A joint venture between Georgia’s TBC Holding and US-based Conti International was awarded the contract to build and operate the port in 2016. However, the Georgian government terminated their contract in 2020, presumably under pressure from Russia, and is now considering bids from Chinese investors.

Still, preventing the West from making inroads into Georgia requires more than geopolitical maneuvering. The Georgian government must also turn to domestic repression to halt progress on the country’s EU and NATO bids.

It no longer matters whether Ivanishvili, who has been steering the country since 2012 (albeit mostly from the wings), has always been Russia’s Trojan horse or only recently decided that democracy does not serve his personal and political interests. The outcome remains the same: Putin has found a strong ally in Ivanishvili, who seems just as determined to distance Georgia from the West. This is a particularly dangerous objective as the fight for Ukraine’s future enters yet another decisive phase.

Russia is playing for high stakes. Burying Georgia’s European future would strengthen the Kremlin’s influence in the Caspian Sea region and Central Asia, and bring Putin closer to his objective of rebuilding the Russian empire,” the MP wrote.